I hate math. Truly. But, I wind up using it in analogies when I teach constantly. So, here’s some math type strategy discussion.
Here’s some facts to piss you off, and start some debates:
1: There are no “bad” moves! Only moves that are easy to see, and stop.
2: ALL moves work if someone doesn’t try to make them not work.
It’s like Newtons 1st law of motion: “If an object experiences no net force, then its velocity is constant: the object is either at rest (if its velocity is zero), or it moves in a straight line with constant speed (if its velocity is nonzero)”.
Or, to put it in more plain English: Stuff that’s moving will keep moving unless something makes it stop. And stuff that’s not moving, will keep not moving, unless something makes it move.
*ALL MOVES WORK UNLESS YOU MAKE THEM NOT WORK!!!!*
The effectiveness, of a move is entirely dependent on the defense of the recipient. And this is where it gets mathematical. It’s a game of percentages. the effectiveness of your execution, versus the effectiveness of their defense. The highest number wins.
That’s the math.
If your execution is at “80”, and their defense is “70”…. It works.
It’s a little like D&D fighting….. At least that’s what a dork told me. I wouldn’t know.
But, I digress.
The problem is that people are looking at the “wrong” %’s when they think about moves. They’re looking at AVERAGE %’s. Not the ACTUAL, CURRENT %. WHich is based ENTIRELY on the interplay between your presentation, and their defense.
We’ll look at the headlock for example. I choose this, because in the last UFC it was used with great success…. Even though by all standards it’s widely considered a JUNK MOVE!!!!!!!
It offers less offense than damn near every other pin. It’s comparatively easy to escape. And when you DO escape the person applying it tends to wind up with you on their back, which is the MOST DOMINANT POSITION in fighting!
The means the headlock is “economically” a bad choice.
So…. No one picks it.
But…. Since no one does it….. People stop practicing the defense of it. And they stop looking for people thinking about doing it.
This changes the “economics” of the whole transaction.
As displayed in the UFC las weekend….. This “Junk move” whooped someones ass.
This will begin a trend…. one that if you train, you will need to watch out for. It will be on a 3-5 year cycle. It’s totally happened with other moves. Here’s how it will go:
Everyone right now sucks at defending the headlock. So, after seeing it’s success, people will think it’s the new magic move, and they’ll start throwing it all day. And IT WILL WORK. Because no one will be practiced in the defense. This will happen immediately. Watch for it in fights. Especially local shows.
Now, this means people will have to start looking for and defending it. And it’ll get easy to spot and defend…. Because, it really is a “junk move”. This will take 6 months to a year.
Then, people will stop doing it, because “it doesn’t work”. And it will slowly fade from the common “vernacular” of fighting. Thing is after a few years the cycle has the opportunity to repeat itself, because the situation has been replicated!!!!!
What does this mean for you?
Well if you’re a “sport fighter” it means keep a working knowledge of “common moves” in your game. Don’t just know how to defend the “trending” moves. Know the WHOLE game. Obviously “focus” on the high percentage stuff, but don’t just leave glaring holes in your game just waiting to be exploited on national television!
And, if you’re a self-defense oriented person, realize that, THAT scenario doesn’t “trend” nearly as much! So, the scenario’s are WAY more fixed. And…. They’re fixed a a lower skill level. Which means…… People don’t know what’s “junk” in the sport world. They will do whatever pops into their stupid heads. And the headlock, is THE MOST COMMON MOVE in a fight!!!!
You have to have a trainer, or a partner that will keep you up to standard on the basics. Or they’re doing you a disservice. Hell, if they don’t throw them at you occasionally….. ASK.
Or better yet, really get into the “long game” and learn how to coerce them into headlocking you! But that’s a whole different post!!!
Now…. Go train.